I’m often surprised at how infrequently news outlets leverage this data source when discussing crime trends. It’s a fascinating resource that collects data on crime victimization from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. As usual, you can read more about this source at the end of the article. The first chart we’ll look at is the rate of violent crime victimization per 1,000 people (12 or older) from 1993 to 2023.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization, 1993-2023.
It’s quite stunning to see how violent crime victimization rates fell throughout the 1990s and remain at (relatively) low levels. This next chart breaks violent crimes down into four distinct types:
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization, 1993-2023.
Turning our attention towards property crimes, rates of victimization have followed a similar trend:
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization, 1993-2023.
As we did before, let’s break down property crimes into four distinct types:
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization, 1993-2023.
These data show that there has been a significant decline in both violent and property crimes in the United States. Simple assault, which peaked at 53.0 incidents per 1,000 persons in 1994, fell to 13.8 in 2023. Aggravated assault showed a similar pattern, declining from 16.5 to 4.5 per 1,000 persons. Among property crimes, other theft remained the most common but dropped substantially from 268.6 to 83.1 incidents per 1,000 households. Burglary rates fell from 45.7 to 9.0, while motor vehicle theft decreased from 19.3 to 6.1 per 1,000 households, though with a slight uptick since 2020. Rape/sexual assault rates declined from 4.3 to 1.7 per 1,000 persons, and robbery rates dropped from 8.3 to 2.6. This consistent downward trend across all crime categories over the 30-year period is something for us all to celebrate.
About the Data
The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, serves as the primary source of data on criminal victimization in the U.S. Each year, it surveys about 240,000 individuals from 150,000 households to gather information on the frequency, nature, and impact of crimes. The NCVS covers nonfatal personal crimes like sexual assault, robbery, and assault, as well as property crimes such as burglary and theft, whether or not they were reported to police. Participants provide details about themselves and any victimization they experienced, along with information about the offender, the crime’s circumstances, and interactions with the justice system.